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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 25
2019-09-18 16:32:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 181432 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Kiko appears to be stronger this morning with very deep convection near the center, although the cloud pattern is somewhat distorted. The initial wind speed is conservatively raised to 50 kt on this advisory, since the subjective satellite estimates have been running a little hot recently. The storm continues to move west-southwest, or 245/05 kt. A track resembling on roller coaster (which seems appropriate for the ups and downs trying to forecast Kiko this past week) is anticipated during the next several days due to fluctuations in the strength of a mid-level ridge to the north. The guidance is actually in pretty good agreement on this unusual track, so little change was made to the previous NHC forecast. Kiko is expected to remain in a low-shear and marginally warm-water environment for the next few days. After that time, some dry air entrainment and a possible increase in shear could level off the intensity. The latest forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, adjusted for the higher initial wind speed, but this is a fairly low confidence forecast at long range due to some large changes in the guidance at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 16.0N 126.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 15.9N 127.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 15.8N 128.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 16.1N 129.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 16.6N 129.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 17.0N 131.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 16.0N 133.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 15.5N 136.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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