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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-09-13 04:40:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 130240 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 A pair of recent microwave overpasses (AMSR-2 at 2055 UTC and SSMIS at 0020 UTC) revealed that Kiko has not become any better organized since this afternoon. Thunderstorm activity is somewhat limited near the center of the tropical cyclone, though this is likely related to diurnal variations in convection, and convection will probably increase again overnight. Subjective and objective intensity estimates range from 30 to 40 kt, so the intensity has been maintained at 35 kt, as a compromise of the various methods. Despite its short-term lack of organization, Kiko will likely strengthen during the next 2 or 3 days. It is located within an environment consisting of low shear, sufficient moisture, and warm SSTs. All of the intensity guidance calls for strengthening, and the only difference between the models is the rate at which Kiko will intensify. The NHC forecast has not been substantially changed and still calls for Kiko to become a hurricane over the weekend. It is also near the high side of the intensity model envelope, especially between 24 and 72 h. By 72 h, the cyclone should reach cooler waters and begin to encounter drier air. Weakening will likely begin around that time and continue into mid-week. Kiko's center appears to have jumped slightly to the north, or perhaps even re-formed, but a 12-h estimate yields an initial motion of 300/9 kt. The models remain in very good agreement that the tropical storm will move generally westward to west-northwestward throughout the forecast period, steered primarily by a mid-layer ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted northward, mainly due to the farther north initial position of Kiko, and closely follows the HCCA and TVCE aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 16.6N 112.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 16.9N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 17.3N 115.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 17.9N 117.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 18.4N 119.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 19.5N 122.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 20.5N 125.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 21.0N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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