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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 38
2019-09-21 22:34:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 212033 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 A pair of ASCAT passes within the past 2-3 hours revealed maximum winds of 40-45 kt, so Kiko's intensity has been lowered to 45 kt. The low-level center appears to be moving out from under the convective cirrus, and the cloud-top temperatures have been warming significantly for much of the day. According to analyses from UW-CIMMS, about 15 kt of southwesterly shear is affecting the cyclone, but there is a chance that the shear will decrease a bit as Kiko loses latitude during the next 36 hours. On the negative side, Kiko will remain in a relatively dry and somewhat stable air mass, and these conditions could limit the amount of deep convection the cyclone is able to produce. The new NHC intensity forecast is very close to the IVCN consensus and the HCCA model, keeping a relatively steady intensity for the next 3 days. By days 4 and 5, an increase in shear and lower oceanic heat content should lead to weakening, and simulated infrared satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF suggest that Kiko's deep convection may dissipate for good by that time. As a result, the official forecast now shows Kiko becoming a remnant low by day 5. Kiko is now moving slowly west-southwestward, or 250/4 kt. An elongated mid- to upper-level trough extending from California to near the Hawaiian Islands is digging southward, which is forcing the subtropical ridge--and Kiko--to lose latitude during the next 36 hours. After that time, the western portion of the trough is forecast to cut off east of the Hawaiian Islands, causing Kiko to turn sharply northwestward on days 2-4. Once a remnant low, Kiko is then expected to be steered by lower-level flow, causing it to turn back to the southwest. The updated NHC track is a little farther south during the first 2 days to account for the adjusted initial position, otherwise it's very close the previous forecast and the various multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 18.0N 131.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 17.4N 132.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 16.5N 133.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 15.9N 134.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 16.1N 135.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 18.3N 137.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 19.0N 138.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 17.7N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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