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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 39
2019-09-22 04:41:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 220241 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 500 PM HST Sat Sep 21 2019 Kiko is only producing a relatively small patch of deep convection to the northeast of its center, the result of continued southwesterly shear and the cyclone moving through what appears to be a stable environment. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data, but it's possible the maximum winds have decreased since then. Given Kiko's structure and its environment, some weakening is expected during the next day or so. However, the cyclone is moving southwestward, toward slightly warmer waters, and this could allow for some restrengthening in 36-48 hours, which is shown by many of the intensity models. Another round of shear and cooler waters should lead to weakening after 48 hours, and Kiko is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by day 5, if not sooner. Kiko is moving a little faster toward the west-southwest, or 240/7 kt. An elongated mid- to upper-level trough extending from California to near the Hawaiian Islands is digging southward, which is forcing the subtropical ridge--and Kiko--to lose latitude during the next 36 hours. After that time, the western portion of the trough is forecast to cut off east of the Hawaiian Islands, causing Kiko to turn sharply northwestward on days 2-4. Once a remnant low, Kiko is then expected to be steered by lower-level flow, causing it to turn back to the southwest. Only small adjustments to the NHC track forecast were made on this cycle, and it still depicts a wave-like trajectory through day 5, as has been the case for several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 17.5N 132.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 16.8N 133.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 16.0N 134.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 15.8N 135.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 16.5N 136.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 18.8N 138.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 19.2N 139.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 18.1N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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