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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 40
2019-09-22 10:58:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Sat Sep 21 2019 509 WTPZ43 KNHC 220858 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 1100 PM HST Sat Sep 21 2019 A small but growing burst of deep convection has resumed near the center of Kiko, but the cyclone is considerably weaker than earlier today. ASCAT data indicated maximum winds of 30-35 kt, and 35 kt will be the initial intensity. Within about 24 hours, Kiko has a chance to re-strengthen as it moves over warmer waters in a lighter shear region. Model agreement is in fairly good agreement on tenacious Kiko intensifying once again. However, Kiko should resume weakening again in about 3 days due to a significant increase in shear and cooler waters, and hopefully the next 48 hours are the last hurrah of Kiko. Kiko is moving southwestward tonight at about 7 kt. The storm should continue to lose latitude for about the next 24 hours due to the orientation of a ridge to the northwest. After that time, the western portion of an incoming mid-latitude trough is forecast to cut off east of the Hawaiian Islands, causing Kiko to turn sharply northwestward on days 2-4. Once a remnant low, Kiko is then expected to be steered by lower-level flow, causing it to turn back to the southwest. No significant changes were made to the sinuous forecast track and, if Kiko survives as long as predicted below, it would end up one of the 10 longest-lasting tropical cyclones in eastern Pacific history. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 17.0N 132.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 16.3N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 15.7N 135.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 16.0N 136.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 17.3N 137.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 19.5N 139.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 19.0N 140.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0600Z 18.0N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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