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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 43
2019-09-23 04:35:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Sun Sep 22 2019 519 WTPZ43 KNHC 230235 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 500 PM HST Sun Sep 22 2019 There's been little change in Kiko's cloud pattern during the past several hours, and the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates remain unchanged. Subsequently, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. The HFIP HCCA and the Florida State Superensemble intensity guidance indicate that there's still a chance that Kiko could re-strengthen a bit during the next 24 hours as it continues moving over warm oceanic sea surface temperature and in a low shear surrounding environment. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters should induce a weakening trend, and Kiko is forecast to become a remnant low in 3 days. Based on a timely 0020 UTC SSMI microwave pass, the initial motion is estimated to be west-southwestward, or 240/7 kt, which is a little south of the previous forecast. There are no significant changes to the forecast philosophy for this advisory. Kiko should turn westward to west-northwestward on Monday, and then northwestward on Tuesday as a high amplitude mid-tropospheric trough cuts off, from the upper-level westerlies, to the northwest of the Kiko. Around day 3, as the cyclone degenerates into a vertically shallow remnant low, Kiko is forecast to, once again, turn back toward the southwest within the low-level tradewinds. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 15.5N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 15.4N 135.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 16.3N 136.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 17.7N 138.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 18.6N 139.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 19.2N 141.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0000Z 18.0N 142.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/0000Z 17.1N 142.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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