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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 44
2019-09-23 10:59:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 230859 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 1100 PM HST Sun Sep 22 2019 GOES-17 enhance infrared imagery and an earlier METOP-A AMSU pass show that resilient Kiko is producing intermittent bursts of deep convection with associated -77C cold cloud tops near the surface center. These convective bursts, based on the TAFB and SAB intensity estimates, are substantial enough to maintain its tropical storm status of 35 kt for this advisory. Both the ECMWF and FV3GFS Decay SHIPS statistical-dynamical intensity models show Kiko briefly re-strengthening as it continues moving over warm SSTs and in a favorable upper-level wind environment. By Tuesday afternoon, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters should induce a weakening trend, and Kiko is forecast to become a remnant low in less than 3 days with dissipation occuring by the end of the forecast period. The initial motion is estimated to be west-southwestward, or 255/8 kt, just south of due west. Kiko is expected to turn westward to west-northwestward on Monday, and then northwestward on Tuesday as a high amplitude mid-tropospheric trough cuts off, from the upper-level westerlies, to the northwest of the cyclone. At the 72 hour period, as the cyclone degenerates into a vertically shallow remnant low, Kiko should, once again, turn back toward the southwest within the low-level tradewind flow. The NHC track forecast is close to the previous advisory and based on a blend of the various multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 15.5N 135.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 15.8N 136.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 16.9N 137.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 18.1N 138.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 19.2N 140.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 19.3N 142.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0600Z 18.2N 143.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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