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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 45
2019-09-23 16:43:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 231443 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 45 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 500 AM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 Kiko's convection has dramatically increased this morning, and satellite intensity estimates have increased in turn. The initial intensity is back up to 45 kt based on a blend of objective and subjective fixes that range from 40 to 55 kt. Kiko's small size is likely making it particularly susceptible to short-term intensity fluctuations, so it is unclear at this time how long this upward trend will continue. It appears that the tropical storm has a chance to intensify some more today while it is located in a relatively low shear environment and over warm SSTs. However, the global models indicate that strong southwesterly shear will once again affect the cyclone in about 24 h, and weakening is still anticipated from that time onward. The dynamical models all show Kiko becoming a post-tropical remnant low in about 72 h, and it could dissipate a couple of days after that. The NHC intensity forecast is above most of the guidance at 12 h, but closely follows the intensity consensus through the rest of the forecast period. Kiko appears to have turned west-northwestward and the initial motion is a rather uncertain 285/7 kt. The models are in good agreement that Kiko will move generally west-northwestward to northwestward for the next couple of days as the subtropical ridge weakens yet again. Around 72 h, Kiko is forecast to turn westward or west-southwestward as it is steered by the low-level tradewind flow. The NHC forecast is a little faster than the previous one, and closely follows the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 15.7N 135.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 16.4N 136.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 17.6N 138.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 19.0N 139.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 19.6N 140.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 19.7N 143.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1200Z 19.3N 145.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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