je.st
news
Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 46
2019-09-23 22:32:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 232031 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 1100 AM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 Not only does Kiko refuse to go away, but satellite images indicate that the cyclone is strengthening. Recent microwave images reveal that the inner core of the storm is a little better organized than it was earlier, and accordingly, the latest satellite intensity estimates have increased this cycle. A blend of the objective and subjective satellite estimates yield an intensity of about 50 kt. Hopefully ASCAT data will provide more information about the cyclone's intensity and size later today. Kiko is moving west-northwestward at 7 kt. A turn to the northwest is expected to occur by tonight, with that motion continuing through Tuesday as the system moves in the flow between a mid-level ridge to the northeast and a mid- to upper-level low to its west. On Wednesday, Kiko is expected to turn back to the west or west-southwest as the shallow system moves in the low-level trade winds. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. Based on the current forecast track, Kiko is expected to enter the central Pacific basin in about 36 hours. The tropical storm could strengthen a little more through tonight, but a significant increase in southerly shear and drier air should cause a steady weakening trend to begin on Tuesday. Kiko is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Wednesday, and it will likely become a remnant low shortly thereafter. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one in the short term, but is otherwise unchanged. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 15.9N 136.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 16.9N 137.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 18.1N 138.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 19.1N 140.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 19.5N 141.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 19.2N 143.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1800Z 19.0N 145.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||