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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 49
2019-09-24 16:55:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 241454 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 49 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 500 AM HST Tue Sep 24 2019 Forty to forty-five knots of south-southwesterly shear has caused Kiko's convection to become displaced from the low-level center by about 70 n mi. A blend of final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB, as well as the latest ADT, supports lowering the initial intensity to 40 kt. The UW-CIMSS shear analysis indicates that Kiko is heading for even stronger shear during the next 6-12 hours, which should lead to further degradation in the cyclone's structure and a quick decrease in its maximum winds. The GFS and ECMWF simulated infrared satellite fields suggest that all deep convection could dissipate by 24 hours, and as a result, the time of Kiko's degeneration into a remnant low has been moved up to 36 hours in the official forecast. Dissipation is expected by day 4. Kiko's initial motion is northwestward, or 310/9 kt. The cyclone is moving between a mid-/upper-level low to its west and mid-level ridging to its northeast. However, once it loses its deep convection and becomes a shallow vortex, Kiko is expected to turn westward (by 36 hours) and then west-southwestward (by 48 hours). Only minor adjustments to the NHC track forecast were required, and on the forecast track, Kiko should cross 140W into the central Pacific basin later this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 17.9N 138.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 18.7N 140.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 19.4N 141.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 19.4N 142.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1200Z 19.0N 143.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1200Z 18.3N 146.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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