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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 6
2019-09-13 22:43:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 132043 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Kiko has been battling some entrained dry air today, and convection is just now beginning to re-wrap around the center of circulation. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from SAB supports an initial advisory intensity of 35 kt. An upper trough to the west of Kiko may continue to force dry air into the cyclone's circulation in the near term. Despite this dry air, the cyclone is expected to remain over warm waters and in a low shear environment for the next couple of days, which should allow for some strengthening. By late this weekend, Kiko is expected to be near hurricane intensity. After 48 hours, Kiko is forecast to begin to move over cooler waters, and after 72 hours, westerly wind shear is expected to begin to impact the cyclone. These factors should cause Kiko to steadily weaken late in the forecast period. Kiko is moving westward, or 280/8 kt, to the south of a broad mid-level ridge. A general west to west-northwestward motion should continue for the next several days. There was a notable shift in the guidance this afternoon, suggesting that the cyclone will move with a little slower forward motion than previously indicated. The tightly clustered consensus guidance also made a slight shift to the west. The official forecast is a little slower and to the left than the previous one, but is on the right side of the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 17.0N 115.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 17.2N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 17.5N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 17.9N 119.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 18.4N 121.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 19.4N 123.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 20.1N 126.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 20.9N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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