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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-09-14 04:41:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 140241 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Kiko may have finally kicked the dry air out of its inner core. There has been a dramatic expansion of cold cloud tops extending from the center of the cyclone, and recent microwave imagery confirms that convective activity is much greater than it was 24 h ago. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have gone up and now support an initial intensity of 45 kt. This value is fairly uncertain, and it certainly possible that Kiko has not strengthened quite that much at this point. It has been very difficult to identify the low-level center of Kiko, and the initial motion is a very uncertain 285/8 kt. In the short term, the initial position may actually be the main source of uncertainty in the forecast. The cyclone should head westward or west-northwestward at about the same forward speed for the next couple of days, and the guidance is very tightly clustered. Beginning Monday, Kiko could turn west-northwestward or northwestward if it substantially deepens, as shown by the GFS, HWRF, and HMON models, or it could just accelerate generally westward, as depicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. The spread grows quite quickly by the end of the forecast period, and the GFS and ECMWF are nearly 500 n mi apart by day 5. The NHC forecast splits these 2 scenarios as a course of least regret, and follows the multi-model consensus closely through the end of the period. Despite its recent convective resurgence, there is still a fair amount of dry air surrounding the cyclone. The environment appears otherwise favorable for strengthening, and most of the guidance calls for additional strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted a little higher, given Kiko's current convective structure, and once again shows Kiko becoming a hurricane in a couple of days. Whatever peak the cyclone reaches, it will likely begin to weaken by day 4 as it encounters cooler waters, drier air, and potentially increased shear. The official intensity forecast is near HCCA throughout the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 17.1N 116.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 17.4N 117.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 17.6N 118.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 17.9N 120.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 18.5N 121.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 19.4N 124.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 20.2N 126.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 20.5N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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