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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 9
2019-09-14 16:55:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 141455 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Kiko's cloud pattern has continued to quickly organize overnight and this morning. A couple of high-resolution microwave overpass from several hours ago revealed significant banding around the center, and that a banded eye had formed. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB at 1200 UTC were 55 kt, and the UW/CIMSS ADT is now up to about 60 kt. Based on the continued increase in organization, the initial intensity has been raised to 60 kt. Kiko is forecast to remain over warm water and in a low wind shear environment during the next day or so. This should allow for additional intensification, and Kiko is expected to become a hurricane later today. The new NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly higher peak intensity and is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model, which is at the upper-end of the guidance envelope. By 72 hours, Kiko will be moving into an area of increasing westerly shear and over slightly cooler waters. As a result, steady weakening is anticipated later in forecast period. The tropical storm is moving westward (280/9 kt) to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico. The track models still exhibit an usually large spread after 48 hours, especially for a system in the eastern Pacific basin. This appears to be the result of the forecast vertical depth of Kiko and how the cyclone responds to a developing weakness in the ridge. The GFS, GFS ensemble mean, and HWRF show a more northerly track, with a stronger Kiko heading toward the break in the ridge. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and UKMET take a weaker Kiko on a more westerly heading. Since the NHC forecast shows Kiko a stronger and vertically deep system during the next couple of days, the track forecast lies a little north of the consensus models. After that time, Kiko is likely to weaken and the official forecast shows a turn back toward the west, as Kiko comes under the influence of the low-level easterly flow. As a result of the large model spread, the confidence in the track forecast remains lower than normal. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 17.4N 118.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 17.6N 119.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 17.9N 120.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 18.3N 122.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 18.8N 123.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 19.6N 125.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 20.3N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 20.7N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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