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Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 19
2018-09-28 16:45:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 28 2018 287 WTNT42 KNHC 281445 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 28 2018 Kirk has become less organized since the last advisory, with satellite imagery showing that the low-level center is now exposed well to the west-northwest of the remaining deep convection. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the winds have decreased to near 40 kt and that the central pressure has risen to near 1007 mb. The aircraft also reports that the circulation is losing definition in the southwestern quadrant. Kirk should continue to weaken due to the effects of 30 kt of westerly vertical shear, and the NHC forecast continues to call for dissipation just after 24 h. As noted in the previous discussion, there is a chance dissipation could occur earlier than currently forecast. The center has jogged back to the west-northwest during the past few hours, which results in an uncertain initial motion of 285/11. Kirk should move generally west-northwestward on the south side of the subtropical ridge until dissipation. Even though Kirk is weakening and moving away from the Lesser Antilles, the associated gusty winds and rains should continue affecting the islands today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 13.8N 63.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 14.2N 65.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 14.8N 67.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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