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Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-08-09 16:31:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018 898 WTPZ43 KNHC 091431 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018 Deep convection has continued to increase in association with Kristy, mainly in a curved band over the northern semicircle of the cyclone. The current intensity estimate is 55 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB and is close to the latest CIMSS SATCON value. Some additional strengthening is possible before Kristy reaches cooler waters late tomorrow, and the official forecast is close to the IVCN intensity model consensus. A weakening trend is likely to commence tomorrow night, and the system is expected to become post-tropical later this weekend. Center fixes have a lot of scatter and the initial motion is an uncertain 345/4 kt. There continues to be a lot of spread in the track guidance models. The GFS and its ensemble, along with the HWRF and HMON regional models, are most aggressive in showing Kristy being drawn into the larger circulation of John to the northeast. The UKMET and ECMWF models do not take Kristy nearly as far to the north and northeast as those other models. Since John is weakening, it may not have that much of an influence on Kristy, especially later in the forecast period. For now, the official forecast is shifted a little to the right of the previous one but not as much as shown by the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus tracks. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 16.1N 130.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 17.0N 130.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 18.2N 129.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 19.3N 129.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 20.4N 128.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 22.0N 128.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 13/1200Z 23.8N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1200Z 25.5N 130.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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