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Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 14
2018-08-10 10:53:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018 302 WTPZ43 KNHC 100853 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018 Kristy has become a little better organized since the last advisory, as there is now a small central dense overcast with outer banding in the southern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates are in the 55-65 kt range, and recent scatterometer data suggests winds are below hurricane strength. Based on these data, the initial intensity is held at 60 kt. There is still some chance that Kristy could become a hurricane during the next few hours. After that, the forecast track takes the cyclone over cooler waters and a steady weakening is forecast. The new intensity forecast, which lies in the middle of the intensity guidance, is nudged downward a little from the previous forecast, although it still calls for Kristy to become a remnant low by 72 h. The initial motion is 005/7. The track guidance has made a notable westward shift since the previous advisory, as the models generally show less interaction between Kristy and Tropical Storm John. However, there is still a significant spread between the northward tracking GFS and the more westward UKMET and ECMWF. The new forecast track is also shifted westward from the previous track, but it lies to the east of the various consensus models. An additional westward adjustment to the track may be required later if the current model trends continue. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 18.2N 129.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 19.2N 129.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 20.3N 129.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 21.1N 129.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 21.8N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 23.5N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/0600Z 25.0N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0600Z 26.5N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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