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Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 15
2018-08-10 16:39:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018 207 WTPZ43 KNHC 101439 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018 Kristy appears to have at least maintained its strength over the past several hours. A partial hit from the AMSR instrument at 0950 UTC indicated a closed or nearly-closed mid-level eye was present, and this feature was still apparent in SSMI imagery a few hours later. Convection near Kristy's center has also recovered after a brief decrease earlier this morning. There is a large spread in the latest satellite intensity estimates. Objective estimates from the UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON are around 50 kt, while the latest subjective Dvorak classification from SAB supports an intensity of 77 kt. The initial intensity has been held at 60 kt as a compromise between the various estimates, but this estimate is perhaps more uncertain than usual. In the short term, Kristy still has a brief period to maintain its intensity for about 12 hours while the shear is low and it remains over marginally warm SSTs around 26C. In fact, I can't rule out that Kristy could briefly become a hurricane later today. Beginning tomorrow, the cyclone will be moving over cooler waters, and steady weakening should begin. The intensity guidance is in very good agreement on this solution for 24 hours and beyond. By early next week, the tropical storm will likely lose all convection and become a remnant low, while continuing to gradually spin down over sub-24C waters. The initial motion is now 010/8 kt. Kristy should continue moving generally northward for the next couple of days, towards a weakness in the subtropical ridge created by John and to the east of a large upper-level trough located over the central Pacific. Once the cyclone becomes a remnant low, it should turn gradually westward, steered by the low-level flow. Even the GFS no longer shows any significant interaction between Kristy and the remnants of John, so the NHC forecast has shifted substantially southwestward by the end of the forecast period, close to the HCCA and TVCN consensus aids. Additional adjustments in this direction may be required if it becomes clear that Kristy will weaken sooner than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 18.9N 129.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 19.9N 129.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 20.9N 129.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 21.6N 129.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 22.1N 130.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 23.3N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1200Z 24.0N 133.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1200Z 24.5N 135.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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