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Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 17

2018-08-11 04:37:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018 298 WTPZ43 KNHC 110237 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018 Kristy appears to have begun a slow weakening trend as it is now passing over progressively cooler SSTs. Convection has become confined mainly to the northeastern quadrant, likely in response to some moderate west-southwesterly shear, as analyzed by UW-CIMSS. The initial intensity has been lowered to 55 kt, and is in agreement with the current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The intensity forecast philosophy remains the same as in the recent forecasts. Kristy will move over SSTs of 23-25 degrees C over the next couple of days, and steady weakening is expected to occur tonight through Sunday. By Sunday evening, Kristy is expected to lose any remaining deep convection and become a remnant low. Kristy is moving just west of due north, with an initial motion estimate of 355/8 kt. During the weakening trend over the next couple of days, Kristy should make a gradual turn to the northwest as it becomes shallower and therefore steered by the low- to mid- level flow around ridging to the north. As the system loses its convection and becomes a remnant low, a turn to the west-northwest is expected. This motion will then continue until the remnant low dissipates by the middle of the week. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly to the left of the previous forecast, following the trends in the latest consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 20.5N 130.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 21.1N 130.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 21.7N 130.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 22.0N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 22.3N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0000Z 23.0N 134.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0000Z 23.6N 137.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0000Z 24.4N 140.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg/Latto

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