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Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 18
2018-08-11 10:41:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 11 2018 344 WTPZ43 KNHC 110841 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 11 2018 Kristy has weakened since the last advisory as the system moves over cooler sea surface temperatures, with the central convection becoming less organized. A recent ASCAT overpass indicates that the maximum winds have decreased to near 40 kt, and that the 34-kt wind radii are smaller than previously analyzed. Kristy will continue to move over cool sea surface temperatures during the forecast period. Thus, continued weakening is expected with the system now forecast to become a remnant low in 36 h or less. The initial motion is now 345/6. As Kristy continues to weaken, the cyclone should make a gradual turn to the northwest as it becomes shallower and therefore steered by the low- to mid-level flow around ridging to the north. Then, as the system becomes a remnant low, a turn to the west-northwest is expected, with this motion persisting through the remainder of the forecast period. The new track forecast, which is similar to the previous track, lies near the various consensus models in the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 21.0N 130.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 21.6N 130.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 22.0N 131.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 22.2N 132.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0600Z 22.5N 133.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0600Z 23.5N 136.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0600Z 24.5N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0600Z 25.5N 142.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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