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Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-08-07 10:51:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 07 2018 135 WTPZ43 KNHC 070850 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 07 2018 Satellite images indicate that the cyclone has rapidly become better organized, with a distinct curved band pattern now apparent. A timely scatterometer pass indicated peak winds of 40-45 kt, so the initial wind speed is set to 45 kt. Continued intensification is forecast while the storm remains over warm waters with light or moderate shear. While there is no guidance indicating anything but slow strengthening, some caution should be advised since Kristy has already overachieved. The wind speed forecast is raised from the previous one, and is close to the HFIP corrected consensus. Weakening should start by day 4 as the storm moves over cooler waters. Kristy appears to be moving at 265/10 kt. Model guidance is in decent agreement on a subtropical ridge holding steady to the north of the cyclone for a day or so, causing a westward motion. After that time, the agreement becomes quite poor due to large uncertainties over how fast the ridge erodes, partially due to the circulation of Hurricane John. The GFS shows a fast erosion and a turn to the north and northeast of Kristy, while the ECMWF keeps the ridge in place, leading to the models being a "mere" 1200 miles apart on the day-5 forecast of Kristy. Interestingly, the model consensus didn't change much, so I've decided to keep the forecast basically the same, with the caveat that this is obviously a low-confidence prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 14.3N 125.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 14.3N 126.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 14.5N 128.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 14.9N 129.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 15.6N 130.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 17.5N 130.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 19.5N 131.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 22.0N 133.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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