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Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-08-08 10:59:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 08 2018 626 WTPZ43 KNHC 080859 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 08 2018 Satellite images indicate that Kristy is not well organized, with a dry slot wrapping around the northwestern side of the circulation. In addition the center is on the northwestern edge of an area of deep convection; an artifact of continued shear. A scatterometer pass revealed maximum winds of about 35 kt, which is a fair bit below the satellite estimates. The initial wind speed is held at a possibly generous 40 kt since convection has increased in the past few hours. Shear from an upper-level low to the north-northeast of Kristy is forecast is relax in a day or so, and by that time the cyclone will probably have mixed the current dry air intrusion. Thus some restrengthening is shown commencing beyond 24 hours. There is only a narrow window for intensification, however, since between 48-72 hours the SSTs should become rather marginal with a possible increase in a shear. The guidance has come down markedly from the last cycle, with most of the models surprisingly showing no increase in strength. This forecast will lower the winds about 10 kt from the previous one during days 1-4, but is still about 10 kt above the consensus at those time frames since the environment doesn't appear to be that hostile. No change has been made to the initial motion estimate of 285/7 kt. Kristy should turn northwestward by this evening and then northward late Thursday as a narrow ridge is eroded away to the north of the cyclone. While some binary interaction with Hurricane John is possible, it seems like Kristy will be steered toward John, then turn northwestward in about 96 hours due to weak ridging developing between the cyclones. Model guidance is coming into better agreement on this scenario, with the ECMWF and GFS solutions converging toward the model consensus. The latest NHC forecast is slow to a blend of the corrected-consensus guidance, and is very close to the previous NHC track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 14.2N 128.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 14.8N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 15.5N 130.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 16.4N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 17.3N 130.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 19.5N 130.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 21.5N 130.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 23.0N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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