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Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-08-09 04:40:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 08 2018 762 WTPZ43 KNHC 090240 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 08 2018 Deep convection associated with Kristy has increased near and to the east of the center during the past few hours. However, microwave images still show that the convective pattern is not symmetric due to westerly shear associated with a mid- to upper-level low to the north-northeast of the cyclone. The satellite intensity estimates range from 35 to 45 kt, so the initial intensity is again held at 40 kt for this advisory. Kristy will likely have an opportunity to strengthen some during the next day or two while it pulls away from the mid- to upper-level low and remains over relatively warm water. In about 48 hours, however, Kristy is expected to cross the 26 degree C isotherm. These cooler waters along the forecast track and a more stable environment should end the opportunity for strengthening and result in a gradual weakening trend. The intensity models remain quite divergent, with the SHIPS and LGEM models showing little or no strengthening while the HWRF model predicts Kristy to reach hurricane intensity. The NHC intensity forecast lies between these scenarios and is in best agreement with the intensity model consensus. This forecast shows Kristy becoming a post-tropical cyclone by day 4 when the system is expected to be over 23 degree C SSTs. The tropical storm has turned northwestward, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 315/6 kt. A turn to the north is expected on Thursday as Kristy gets drawn toward the larger and stronger Hurricane John. The spread in the models remains really large with the GFS and HWRF models showing Kristy moving northeastward and even merging with John. Conversely, the ECMWF and UKMET models show a northward and then more westward motion when Kristy becomes a weak and shallow system in 4 to 5 days. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little to the right, but it remains to the west of the consensus models in favor of the UKMET and ECMWF solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 15.3N 130.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 16.0N 130.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 16.9N 130.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 18.0N 130.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 19.2N 129.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 21.0N 129.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 22.5N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 14/0000Z 23.0N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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