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Tropical Storm Lidia Forecast Discussion Number 10
2017-09-01 04:35:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Aug 31 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 010234 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 900 PM MDT Thu Aug 31 2017 During the past couple of hours while the center of Lidia was meandering very near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, the deep convection near the center blossomed, and the cloud pattern increased in organization. In fact, there was a hint of an eye feature in between two hooking bands. Part of the increase in convection could be related to the moist flow against the mountains. Based on recent satellite intensity estimates, the winds remain at 55 kt, and now that a large portion of the circulation is interacting with the peninsula, gradual weakening is anticipated. If the core of Lidia moves closer or over land as indicated in the NHC forecast, the weakening process could occur faster. Beyond 48 hours, the cold waters west of Baja California will finish the job. Lidia hesitated earlier this afternoon, but it has now resumed a motion toward the north-northwest or 335 degrees at about 9 kt. The steering pattern has not changed, and Lidia is still sandwiched between a high over Mexico and a cyclonic gyre to the west over the ocean. This flow will keep Lidia advancing over or very near the spine of the Baja California peninsula for the next day or two. Thereafter, the ridge will build to the north forcing the cyclone to move on a west-northwest to west track. By then, Lidia should be over cold waters as a shallow remnant low. Lidia continues to be a large system accompanied by very heavy rains which are occurring over portions of western Mexico and Baja California Sur. These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. In addition, the mountainous terrain of the Baja California peninsula could enhance the winds at higher elevations. Some of the tropical moisture from Lidia may reach parts of the desert Southwest this holiday weekend, including southern California, southern Nevada and southwestern Arizona. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 23.3N 110.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 24.4N 111.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 24H 02/0000Z 26.0N 112.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 36H 02/1200Z 27.3N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 03/0000Z 28.7N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 04/0000Z 30.5N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/0000Z 31.5N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0000Z 31.5N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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