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Tropical Storm Lidia Forecast Discussion Number 13
2017-09-01 22:35:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 01 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 012035 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 01 2017 The center of Lidia has been moving over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. While the convective cloud pattern has become somewhat ragged, a recent surface observation from Loreto, Mexico indicates that maximum sustained winds remain near 50 kt. The storm also continues to have a large wind field in the eastern semicircle as shown by a prolonged period of tropical- storm-force winds at Los Mochis on the Mexican mainland. Weakening is expected while the circulation interacts with the mountainous terrain of Baja California. However, tropical-storm- force winds will continue to extend well east of the center, riding up the peninsula and adjacent Gulf of California for about the next 24 hours. When Lidia emerges over the Pacific, it is expected to be over sea surface temperatures near or below 24C, which should cause it to quickly decay to a remnant low. The latest large-scale model guidance suggests that a circulation should persist through 96 h, possibly due to interaction with a nearby mid- to upper-level low late in the forecast period. Thus, a 96 h point has been included. The initial motion is now 325/10. Lidia remains between a mid-level high centered over the southwestern United States and the aforementioned mid- to upper-level trough to the southwest and south over the Pacific, and these features should keep the cyclone on a general northwestward course for the next 72 h or so, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest. The new forecast track has the center over or just off of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula for the next 18-24 h before emerging over the Pacific Ocean. Overall the new track is an update of the previous track that lies close to, but is slightly faster than, the various consensus models. While Lidia should weaken, the heavy rainfall threat will continue over northwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. Moisture from the cyclone could reach the southwestern United States over the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 25.5N 111.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 12H 02/0600Z 26.8N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 02/1800Z 28.2N 114.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 03/0600Z 29.4N 116.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/1800Z 30.7N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1800Z 33.0N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1800Z 34.0N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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