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Tropical Storm Lidia Forecast Discussion Number 15
2017-09-02 10:53:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 02 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 020853 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 02 2017 Lidia's convection has a rather amorphous pattern in infrared satellite imagery this morning, but earlier microwave images indicate that the storm still has some banding features. The center has moved inland again and is now located over northern Baja California Sur. Since the center is over land and cloud tops are gradually warming, the advisory intensity is set at 40 kt, which is slightly below the average of the latest Dvorak CI numbers. The strongest winds are likely occurring well to the north and east of the center over the Gulf of California. Continued weakening is expected since Lidia will be moving over the rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula and then over the cold waters off the peninsula's west coast. Lidia should lose its deep convection over the cold waters by 36 hours, at which point it would become a remnant low. The global models generally keep Lidia as a separate and distinct vorticity maximum through at least 48 hours, but they then show it merging or becoming absorbed by a larger area of vorticity by day 3. The NHC forecast continues to show a day 3 point for continuity, but whatever surface low exists at that time is likely to be a new and separate feature. Lidia continues to move northwestward (320/10 kt) along the southern edge of a mid-tropospheric high centered over the southwestern United States, and this motion should continue for the next 36 hours. A bend toward the west-northwest is expected after that time due to Lidia's interaction with a mid-/upper-level low currently located well to the west of the Baja California peninsula. Lidia should re-emerge off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula later today and then gradually move away from land over the next few days. Despite weakening, the heavy rainfall threat will continue over northwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula through Sunday. Moisture from the cyclone could reach the southwestern United States over the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 27.2N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 02/1800Z 28.3N 114.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 03/0600Z 29.6N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 30.8N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/0600Z 31.9N 120.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0600Z 33.1N 125.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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