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Tropical Storm Lidia Forecast Discussion Number 17
2017-09-02 22:42:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 02 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 022042 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 02 2017 Lidia's deep convection is becoming less organized and located increasingly farther away from the center of the tropical storm. This is likely due to the system being disrupted while traveling up the spine of the mountainous Baja California peninsula as well as the cold waters on the west side of the peninsula. Despite this, the system still has a robust surface circulation and the ASCAT scatterometer passes this afternoon showed 35 kt peak winds within the Gulf of California, which is the value used for the initial intensity. The tropical storm should continue weakening as it traverses cold SSTs and a less unstable, dry atmosphere. It is likely that deep convection associated with Lidia will cease in 12-24 hr marking the end of the system as a tropical cyclone. The official intensity forecast is the based upon the tightly clustered statistical and dynamical model guidance and is the same as the previous advisory. Lidia is moving toward the northwest at 10 kt while moving around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge. The tropical storm should turn toward the west-northwest at about the same rate of speed as it weakens and moves along in the low-level tradewind flow. The official track forecast is based upon the usually reliable global models and is slightly north of the previous advisory. Despite the forecast weakening, the heavy rainfall threat will continue over northwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula through Sunday. Moisture from the cyclone should spread over portions of the southwestern United States through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 28.8N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 29.6N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 30.9N 118.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/0600Z 31.8N 120.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1800Z 32.4N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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