je.st
news
Tropical Storm Lidia Forecast Discussion Number 8
2017-08-31 16:40:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Aug 31 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 311439 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 900 AM MDT Thu Aug 31 2017 Conventional and microwave satellite data indicate that Lidia has become better organized this morning, with interlocking convective bands forming around a much better defined center. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 45 kt, and the latest CIMSS ADT estimate is close to 55 kt. The initial intensity is increased to 45 kt, and this could be conservative. The initial motion is north-northwestward or 340/8 kt between a mid-level anticyclone centered over central Mexico and a mid- to upper-level low located to the west over the Pacific. This motion should continue for the next 24-36 hours. After that time, a mid-level anticyclone over the southwestern United States should become the main steering influence and force Lidia to turn northwestward and west-northwestward on days 2 through 5. While there remains some spread in the speed, the guidance is tightly clustered on the track, and the new forecast is similar to both the previous forecast and the various consensus models. Additional strengthening is likely today before the center moves close to the Baja California peninusla, and while the chance of Lidia becoming a hurricane is low it is non-zero. Weakening is expected after 12 hours due to the center moving up the spine of the Baja California peninsula, but tropical-storm-force winds are likely to spread up the Gulf of California well east of the center. Lidia is forecast to become a remnant low by day 3 due to its interaction with land, and further weakening is anticipated over the cold waters of the California Current on days 4 and 5. Lidia is a large system accompanied by very heavy rains which are already occurring over portions of western Mexico and Baja California Sur. Regardless of how strong Lidia becomes, life-threatening flash floods and mudslides will be a significant hazard over these areas. In addition, the mountainous terrain of the Baja California peninsula could enhance the winds at higher elevations. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 22.3N 109.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 23.3N 110.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 24.6N 111.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 02/0000Z 26.1N 112.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 02/1200Z 27.6N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 03/1200Z 30.0N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/1200Z 30.5N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/1200Z 30.5N 122.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||