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Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 9
2019-09-19 16:50:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 191450 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Microwave and satellite imagery indicated that the center of Lorena moved along the southwestern coast of Mexico overnight and this morning. More recent 1-minute GOES-17 visible satellite imagery suggests that the center has now moved offshore just west of Cabo Corrientes. Assuming that some weakening occurred while the core interacted with land, the initial intensity has been reduced to 60 kt for this advisory. This is in agreement with an average of the SAB and TAFB satellite estimates. Although the inner core has likely been disrupted, the overall satellite appearance suggests Lorena remains well organized with excellent banding and very cold cloud tops over the center. Lorena will be traversing very warm water to the southeast of the Baja California peninsula and the upper-level environment is expected to be quite favorable. Therefore, re-strengthening is anticipated during the next day or so, and the NHC intensity forecast is closest to the higher statistical guidance. This foreast could be on the low side if the inner core has remained more intact that currently thought. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Lorena this afternoon, and this data should provide a better estimate of the current intensity and structure of the cyclone. Recent satellite and microwave fixes show that Lorena is moving northwestward or 320/9 kt. A west-northwesterly motion is expected to begin later today while Lorena moves between a mid-level ridge to the north and Tropical Storm Mario to its southwest. This forecast assumes that Lorena will remain the dominant system if it interacts with Mario, and will eventually turn northwestward around the western portion of the ridge. This scenario is favored by most of the ECMWF ensemble members, and is close the GFS ensemble mean. Although there is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the exact track and intensity of Lorena, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will continue over portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next day or so. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue along a portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico through this afternoon. 3. Lorena is forecast re-strengthen into a hurricane and move very close to the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula by Friday afternoon, and could bring hurricane conditions to the area. A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning have been issued, and residents should heed the advice of local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 20.5N 105.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 21.2N 106.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 21.7N 108.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 22.2N 109.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 22.7N 110.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 24.8N 112.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 26.8N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 28.8N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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