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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 2
2013-09-13 22:43:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 132043 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 PM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN ESTIMATED EARLIER THIS MORNING...WITH A GROWING BALL OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. ASCAT DATA SUGGESTED THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE ABOUT 35 KT...AND THIS IS USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. WHILE THE AREA OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS IS SMALL...THE CIRCULATION OF MANUEL IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MUCH LARGER CYCLONIC GYRE THAT CONTAINS LOTS OF STRONG WINDS NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS STRUCTURE MAKES THE INTENSITY FORECAST TRICKY SINCE OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SEEM CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS FROM ASCAT...MANUEL SHOULD HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO INTENSIFY...AND THE NHC PREDICTION IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE CONSENSUS AT THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM. INSTEAD OF A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OCCURRING...IT SEEMS LIKE MANUEL IS HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...295/5. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST THE STORM SHOULD TAKE A NORTHWARD TURN RELATIVELY SOON DUE TO THE RIDGE WEAKENING OVER MEXICO. HOWEVER... THE MODEL SPREAD HAS GROWN SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...WITH THE NORMALLY RELIABLE ECMWF A FAIR DISTANCE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE INTERACTION OF THE RIDGE OVER MEXICO...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND TROPICAL STORM INGRID. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD...ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IT WOULD NOT BE VERY SURPRISING IF FURTHER WESTWARD ADJUSTMENTS ARE REQUIRED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 15.6N 102.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 16.0N 102.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 16.8N 102.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 17.9N 102.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 18.9N 103.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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