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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 3
2013-09-14 04:49:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 140249 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MANUEL HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. BANDING FEATURES HAVE IMPROVED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT TO THE NORTHWEST...AND RECENT PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGES HAVE REVEALED A SMALL LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYELIKE FEATURE. FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALONG WITH ADT ESTIMATES ARE AROUND 35 KT. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40 KT BASED ON THE 15-20 NMI DIAMETER EYELIKE FEATURE. THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHEAST...BASED ON WIND REPORTS FROM SHIP DFZB2. IT APPEARS THAT MANUEL HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW NEARLY STATIONARY. MANUEL IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER SYNOPTIC-SCALE CYCLONIC GYRE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH INCLUDES TROPICAL STORM INGRID LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING THE ENTIRE GYRE COMPLEX TO SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MANUEL GRADUALLY ASSUMING A NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY AND CONTINUING UNTIL LANDFALL IN 36-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...MANUEL HAS A SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT TRMM AND SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATING AN EYELIKE FEATURE. SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER 18-24 HOURS...MANUEL HAS A GOOD CHANCE TO INTENSIFY...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A LITTLE ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL ICON. HOWEVER...IF INNER-CORE DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS SOONER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN MANUEL COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 15.3N 102.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 16.0N 102.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 17.0N 102.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 18.1N 103.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 19.1N 103.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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