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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 4
2013-09-14 10:56:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 140856 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 AM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013 GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MANUEL IS ORGANIZING. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND A LARGE CURVED BAND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH MANUEL APPEARS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN IT WAS EARLIER...ALL OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED... SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS MAINTAINED AT 40 KT. MANUEL HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD EXISTS IN THE MODELS...THE OVERALL THEME IS THAT MANUEL...AND THE LARGE-SCALE GYRE THAT IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN...WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY. THAT GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST THIS CYCLE...AND THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY UNTIL MANUEL MAKES LANDFALL DUE TO GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE ICON CONSENSUS MODEL AND LIES CLOSE TO THE LGEM GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT SUGGESTS THAT MANUEL COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY THE TIME IT MAKES LANDFALL. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF MANUEL AND TROPICAL STORM INGRID IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 15.3N 102.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 16.0N 102.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 17.1N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 18.3N 103.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 16/0600Z 19.3N 104.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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