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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 9
2013-09-15 16:51:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 151450 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION REMAINS IMPRESSIVE. A MOSTLY CIRCULAR DENSE OVERCAST SURROUNDS THE CENTER...WITH A LONG CURVED BAND EXTENDING WELL TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER... AN EARLIER SSM/I PASS SHOWED A LESS ORGANIZED INNER CORE STRUCTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS... AND A LITTLE SEPARATION BETWEEN THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS. THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AT 1200 UTC WAS 4.0...WITH THE LATEST ADT VALUE OF 3.7. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT...GIVEN THE LACK OF WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL FEATURES AND RECENT CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOP WARMING IN THE INNER CORE. SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE MOTION OF MANUEL IS A BIT TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...WITH A LONGER-TERM MOTION ESTIMATED TO BE 320/08...WHICH HAS DELAYED LANDFALL. MANUEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NEAR THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SOMETIME LATER TODAY. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE NORTHWESTERLY INITIAL MOTION BUT REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. WITH THE CENTER OF MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON...RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD FOLLOW WHEN THE CIRCULATION IS DISRUPTED BY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST IN ANOTHER DAY OR SO. ANY DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT COULD DELAY THE TIME OF LANDFALL FURTHER AND COULD LEAD TO TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. AS A CONSEQUENCE...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 18.5N 103.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 19.5N 104.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 24H 16/1200Z 20.3N 105.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/0000Z 21.2N 106.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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