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Tropical Storm MANUEL Public Advisory Number 9
2013-09-15 16:49:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 151449 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013 ...MANUEL MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...RISK OF FLASH-FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 103.9W ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM WNW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.9 WEST. MANUEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY NEAR AND PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THIS MORNING...LIKELY MAKING LANDFALL LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES ONSHORE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF COLIMA...JALISCO AND NAYARIT. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN REGIONS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TODAY BEFORE THE CENTER OF MANUEL REACHES THE COAST. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF MANUEL MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MANUEL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND MANZANILLO. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
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