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Tropical Storm MELISSA Forecast Discussion Number 10
2013-11-20 21:36:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST WED NOV 20 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 202036 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 500 PM AST WED NOV 20 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WHICH IS WRAPPED BY A FEW CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS EARLIER TODAY SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS...AND ALSO INDICATES THAT THE WIND FIELD IS ASYMMETRIC WITH THE LARGEST AREA OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE BEGUN TO COME DOWN A LITTLE SUPPORTING THE REDUCTION OF THE WINDS. MELISSA IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERIES. ALTHOUGH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED... MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS. MELISA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 060 DEGREES AT 26 KNOTS WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. SINCE THIS STEERING PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH...THE NHC FORECAST KEEPS MELISSA ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE EAST UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 4 DAYS OR SOONER. THE NHC FOREAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 37.2N 44.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 39.0N 40.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 41.0N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 22/0600Z 42.0N 28.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 22/1800Z 43.5N 23.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 23/1800Z 42.0N 17.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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