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Tropical Storm NARDA Forecast Discussion Number 2
2013-10-07 04:36:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN OCT 06 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 070236 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 800 PM PDT SUN OCT 06 2013 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER AND IN A CURVED BAND OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NUDGED UPWARD...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND A CIRA AMSU ESTIMATE. THIS MAKES THE CYCLONE TROPICAL STORM NARDA. THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE SHEAR FORECAST TO BECOME QUITE LOW BY 48 HOURS WHILE NARDA REMAINS OVER WARM WATER. BEYOND 72 HOURS...A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...DRIER AIR...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER SHOULD PROMOTE WEAKENING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. NARDA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 11 KT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING NARDA TO SLOW DOWN A LITTLE AND TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE MODELS BECOME QUITE DIVERGENT IN ABOUT 3 DAYS WHEN THE STORM MOVES INTO A REGION OF WEAK STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH TO ITS NORTH AND RIDGES TO ITS EAST AND WEST. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOW NARDA BEING PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS...ECMWF...AND FIM SHOW THE SYSTEM STALLING AND THEN TURNING BACK TOWARD THE WEST TO THE SOUTH OF A BUILDING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE LATTER SOLUTION IS PREFERRED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF THOSE MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 13.2N 119.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 13.5N 121.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 14.0N 123.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 14.8N 125.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 15.5N 126.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 16.1N 127.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 16.4N 128.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 16.7N 129.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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