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Tropical Storm NARDA Forecast Discussion Number 8
2013-10-08 16:32:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 08 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 081431 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 08 2013 ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES...CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION HAS ALSO DECREASED THIS MORNING...AND OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE CONSEQUENTLY FALLEN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT... WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THE UNEXPECTED WEAKENING OF NARDA DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF AN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO EVEN DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR...AND INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE NARDA TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN... AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NARDA CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AS IT IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 15.6N 126.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 16.1N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 16.3N 128.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 16.4N 129.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 16.4N 130.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 16.3N 131.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1200Z 16.0N 133.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1200Z 15.5N 135.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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