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Tropical Storm NORBERT Forecast Discussion Number 1
2014-09-02 16:46:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 02 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 021446 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 02 2014 The area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo now has enough organized convection to be considered a tropical cyclone. Although moderate northeasterly shear is present, banding features are in the southern semicircle of the cyclone along with bursts of convection near the center. The initial wind speed is set to 35 kt in accordance with earlier ASCAT data. Norbert has been moving toward the north-northeast or 020/12. Almost all of the guidance show Norbert turning sharply northward and west-northwestward within 24 hours due to the cyclone leaving the ITCZ and becoming steered by a mid-level high over Mexico. The NHC prediction during this time is on the right side of the guidance envelope, mostly because of the initial motion. After that time, there is some uncertainty in the strength of the ridge over northwestern Mexico, which causes some spread in the model tracks of Norbert while it approaches the southern Baja California peninsula. While the NHC forecast is close to the model consensus after 24 hours, it would not be surprising to see later forecasts be adjusted a bit to the north at longer range, given model trends. The environment near Norbert seems mostly favorable for strengthening during the next few days with the cyclone forecast over warm waters with moderate shear. Given this environment, it is a little surprising that none of the more reliable models makes Norbert a hurricane. Since there is some possibility of land interaction and higher shear, the NHC prediction will be a little above the model consensus, but below the highest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 17.5N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 18.6N 107.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 19.3N 108.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 19.6N 109.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 20.1N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 21.8N 112.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 23.0N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 23.5N 117.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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