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Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-09-03 10:44:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020 457 WTNT41 KNHC 030844 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Nana Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020 Nana made landfall on the coast of Belize about 45 n mi south of Belize City around 0600 UTC today. It is estimated to be located inland and weakening over the southern part of that country with maximum winds of no more than 60 kt at this time. The small circulation will be moving over mountainous terrain today and tonight, so rapid weakening is likely. The official forecast is similar to the Decay-SHIPS intensity guidance, and calls for the system to degenerate into a remnant low by Friday. Although the remnants of Nana are forecast to move into the east Pacific in about 36 hours, the model guidance is in good agreement that conditions in that area will not be conducive for regeneration. The tropical cyclone continues to move a little south of west, or around 255/13 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Nana should keep it moving on a west to west-southwestward track during the next day or so. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, and on the northern side of the guidance envelope. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions will continue within the warning areas in Belize, Mexico, Guatemala, and the Bay Islands of Honduras this morning. Storm surge along the Belize coast will subside this morning as Nana moves farther inland. 2. Heavy rainfall with isolated maximum amounts as high as 8 to 12 inches could result in flash flooding in Belize, Guatemala, and portions of southeastern Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 16.7N 88.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 12H 03/1800Z 16.4N 90.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/0600Z 15.8N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/1800Z 15.3N 95.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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