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Tropical Storm Narda Forecast Discussion Number 12
2019-10-01 10:42:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 010842 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019 The ill-defined surface center of Narda is a bit difficult to find this morning, but the best estimate, using conventional satellite imagery, is just offshore of the mainland Mexico coast and about 30 miles southeast of the now decoupled mid-level circulation. The majority of the deep convection associated with the cyclone has moved inland. However, sustained tropical-storm-force winds may still exist along and just offshore of the coast, north of Los Mochis, Sinaloa and south of Guaymas, Sonora. Based on the deteriorating satellite presentation, and a blend of the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt. Although Narda's center has re-emerged over the Gulf of California, further weakening is still forecast, and dissipation of the cyclone is anticipated as it once again moves inland over the rugged terrain of coastal Mainland Mexico on Wednesday. It's worth noting, however, that a couple of the large-scale models indicate Narda's remnants drifting back just offshore over the central Gulf of California prior to dissipation. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 325/12 kt. This general northwestward motion, within the mid-level southwestern peripheral flow of strong high pressure ridging to the northeast, is expected until the cyclone dissipates, and the new NHC forecast track is changed little from the previous one. The main hazard produced by Narda continues to be very heavy rainfall, due to large amounts of deep-layer moisture being advected northward and northeastward over Mexico on the eastern side of the cyclone's circulation. These rains, which could total as much as 15 inches in a few locations, will result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Furthermore, the very humid mid- and upper-level remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northeastward across northern Mexico and into portions of the U.S. Southern and Central Plains through Wednesday, enhancing the threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding in these areas. For additional information, please see excessive rainfall products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 26.6N 109.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 27.9N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 02/0600Z 29.2N 111.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND REMNT LOW 36H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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