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Tropical Storm Narda Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-09-29 04:42:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 290242 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 Late afternoon visible satellite imagery and ship observations show that the disturbance's circulation has become better defined. In addition, there has been an increase in convective banding around the western portion of the system. As a result, the system is being classified as a tropical storm. The initial wind speed is maintained at 35 kt, which is in agreement with earlier scatterometer data, and the latest TAFB Dvorak classification. Narda is located within an area of moderate northeasterly shear and is likely to interact with the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico on Sunday. As a result, only slight strengthening is indicated within the next 24 hours, followed by some weakening as the system moves near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico. The latter portion of the intensity forecast is quite uncertain. If the system tracks to the right of the official forecast it would likely weaken and dissipate over southern Mexico, but if it remains farther west or just offshore, it could be stronger than indicated below. The tropical storm is moving northwestward at about 8 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge over the southeastern United States should continue to steer the disturbance northwestward during the next couple of days. The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF both take the system inland within the next 24 hours, however the ensemble means favor a track near, but just offshore of the coast. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory, but the confidence after 36-48 hours is quite low due to the potential land interaction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 15.4N 100.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 16.7N 101.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 18.3N 103.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 20.3N 105.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 22.2N 107.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 24.9N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 25.5N 109.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 26.5N 110.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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