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Tropical Storm Narda Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-09-29 16:56:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 291456 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 The center of Narda either re-formed to the northwest or accelerated its forward motion during the night, as surface observations from Mexico and satellite imagery indicate that it is now located along the coast of Mexico near Lazaro Cardenas. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt based on the Mexican observations and little change in the satellite intensity estimates since the last advisory. First-light visible imagery suggests that the cyclone's circulation is elongated east-west, with the center located on the eastern side of the elongation. The initial motion is a rather uncertain 325/13 kt. Over the next couple of days, Narda will be steered generally northwestward along the southwestern periphery of a large high pressure area. After that time, a mid- to upper-level trough approaching the northern Baja California peninsula from the west should cause the system to turn north-northwestward. The new forecast track is parallel to, but moved significantly to the right of, the previous forecast due to the initial position and motion, and it keeps the center over portions of western Mexico for the next 12-24 hours before bringing the system over the southeastern and eastern portions of the Gulf of California. The intensity forecast is highly uncertain. The official forecast will follow the scenario of the previous forecast in calling for Narda to weaken to a depression while over Mexico, and then call for some re-intensification later in the forecast period when the system emerges over water in a light shear environment. However, there are two alternative scenarios. The most likely of these is that the circulation dissipates as it passes over the mountains of western Mexico, which is a distinct possibility if the system goes as far inland as currently forecast. The least likely is that the center reforms offshore, which could lead to significant changes in both the intensity and the track forecasts. The primary threat from Narda is very heavy rainfall, which should result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of the southern coast of Mexico. Rainfall totals of up to 15 inches are possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 18.1N 102.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 19.3N 103.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/1200Z 21.5N 105.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 01/0000Z 23.2N 107.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 24.5N 108.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 26.5N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 28.0N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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