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Tropical Storm Narda Forecast Discussion Number 9
2019-09-30 16:59:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 301459 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Recent microwave data and surface observations from Mexico indicate that the center of Narda is located just offshore of the west coast of mainland Mexico, north of Islas Marias. The cyclone continues to produce a large area of deep convection near and to the west of its center. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB support tropical storm strength, so the initial intensity has been raised to 35 kt, making Narda a tropical storm once again. An automated observing site near San Blas, Mexico recently reported a wind gust to 38 kt, and a pressure of 1002.8 mb was observed at Islas Marias earlier this morning. Some additional strengthening is possible today while Narda moves over the warm waters of the Gulf of California, however, interaction with land is likely to occur by Tuesday, and gradual weakening should begin by that time. If the center moves to the right of the NHC track forecast, landfall and weakening would occur much sooner. Narda is moving northwestward at 13 kt. The tropical storm should continue to move northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a large mid-level anticyclone centered over the southeastern United States. Although the various global model ensemble means take Narda farther westward over the Gulf of California during the next couple of days, the operational ECMWF and UKMET models show the cyclone moving inland over mainland Mexico within the next day or so. This is the solution that the NHC track forecast leans toward, and it is possible that Narda will move onshore farther south than implied by the exact forecast track. The main threat posed by Narda continues to be very heavy rainfall, due to large amounts of moisture being advected northward and northeastward over Mexico on the eastern side of the cyclone's circulation. These rains, which could total as much as 15 inches in a few locations, will result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 22.5N 106.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 24.0N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 25.7N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 02/0000Z 27.2N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 02/1200Z 28.4N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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