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Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Discussion Number 18
2021-08-30 04:41:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021 168 WTPZ44 KNHC 300241 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021 Nora appears to have moved inland, and it is unclear if it still has a well-defined surface center. Earlier microwave data was inconclusive regarding the existence of the low level center, while the Dvorak analysts from TAFB and SAB were each unable to fix Nora's center over water. The intensity has been lowered to 35 kt, assuming weakening has occurred due to continued interaction with land. Baring an unexpected redevelopment of the center over water, Nora should continue to weaken inland, and could dissipate as soon as early Monday. Quick dissipation is now supported by all of the dynamical guidance. Accordingly, the NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted much lower than in the previous advisory. Nora is forecast to become post-tropical tomorrow and dissipate by Tuesday. Based on recent trends, this forecast is probably generous. Despite the uncertainty associated with Nora's position, the system still appears to be moving generally north-northwestward, with an initial motion of 330/10 kt. None of the dynamical guidance is able to track a low-level center more than about 24 h. However,there is good agreement that the mid-level remnants of Nora will continue moving generally northwestward and could contribute to heavy rain across northwest Mexico and portions of the southwestern U.S. during the middle to latter portion of the week. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across the west coast of Mexico from the states of Nayarit northward to southern Sonora. This rain will likely result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across these regions. Rainfall from Nora is likely to spread into the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies during the middle to latter portion of the week, bringing the potential for flash flooding to the region FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 24.8N 107.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 25.4N 108.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 31/0000Z 26.3N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 31/1200Z 27.0N 109.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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