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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 21
2020-10-14 04:37:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 13 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 140236 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 13 2020 Norbert has increased in organization this evening, with a pair of microwave passes as well as infrared satellite imagery showing a tightly curved band of convection wrapping about halfway around the low-level center. In addition, a well-defined outflow pattern is surrounding the cyclone in the current low-shear environment. Based on these developmental trends, the initial intensity has been increased to 35 kt, which is in agreement with the latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB. There is only about a 12-18 h opportunity for Norbert to maintain its current strength or perhaps intensify a little more before it reaches a hostile environment just to its north. By 24 h, the cyclone is forecast to encounter strong southwesterly shear and a dry and stable atmospheric environment, while moving over cooler waters. Therefore, the cyclone should start weakening by 24 h and should degenerate into a remnant low devoid of deep convection by 48 h. The model guidance indicates the remnant low should dissipate very soon thereafter. The latest NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest consensus intensity guidance, and is only higher than the previous NHC forecast due to the increase in the initial intensity. Norbert has been moving northwestward at around 13 kt since this afternoon as the cyclone has been steered between a deep-layer ridge centered over northern Mexico and an upper-level low offshore of Baja California. As the upper low shifts westward over the next day or so, Norbert's forward speed should decrease. What remains of Norbert should then turn northward on Thursday within the low-level flow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 21.0N 112.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 22.4N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 24.2N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 25.5N 115.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 26.5N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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