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Tropical Storm OCTAVE Forecast Discussion Number 9
2013-10-15 04:35:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 150235 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 800 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013 RECENT GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF OCTAVE IS DECOUPLING FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG SHEAR AND COOL WATERS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DVORAK FINAL-T AND CI-NUMBERS FROM SAB. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER INTERACTS WITH LAND AND THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY 12 HOURS...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 24 HOURS. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS...BUT COULD OCCUR SOONER. SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF OCTAVE IS A LITTLE EAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 025/10. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL THE CENTER REACHES LAND...WITH LITTLE OR NO MOTION EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME AS THE CIRCULATION WEAKENS OVER THE TERRAIN OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS AGAIN TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHALLOW BAM THROUGH LANDFALL. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OCTAVE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. INTERESTS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 25.1N 112.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 25.9N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 16/0000Z 26.1N 111.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1200Z 26.3N 111.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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