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Tropical Storm Octave Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-10-18 04:34:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 17 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 180234 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Satellite imagery indicates that the cyclone located nearly 1500 mi southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become a little better organized. The latest TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate is 2.5/35 kt. Furthermore, late-arriving ASCAT-C data from earlier today showed a few 30-35 kt wind vectors in the northwest quadrant of the cyclone. Based on these data, the intensity estimate is 35 kt, and the system is now Octave, the 15th named storm of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season. The tropical storm unexpectedly accelerated southwestward for a brief period earlier this afternoon, but it has since resumed a slow westward crawl. Octave is caught in a region of nearly zero net steering flow, and is therefore expected to move very little for the foreseeable future. Due to Octave's jump to the southwest, the NHC track forecast has been generally adjusted in that direction, and is based primarily on a blend of the the GFS and ECMWF global models, both of which call for a slow looping track through 120 h. Octave is located in an environment that could support slight additional strengthening, as shown by the statistical guidance, though the dynamical models suggest it has already peaked. Upper-level convergence and a drier surrounding environment are forecast to become inhibiting factors to the cyclone's convection in about 48 h, and it could become a remnant low soon after. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted only slightly to account for the higher initial intensity and follows the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 9.8N 127.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 10.1N 127.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 10.7N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 11.1N 127.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 11.1N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 10.6N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0000Z 10.5N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/0000Z 11.5N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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