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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-11-05 16:04:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM PST Thu Nov 05 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 051503 CCA TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 8...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 700 AM PST Thu Nov 05 2020 Corrected to say dissipated for the 72 h forecast. Odalys appears to be losing the battle against high vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment as an overnight convective burst has been sheared off to the northeast. Only a small region of cloud tops colder than -60 C remains about 100 nm away from the exposed low-level circulation center. The latest satellite estimates from SAB and TAFB have decreased and it is possible that Odalys has already started weakening. However, the current intensity will be held at 45 kt for this advisory out of respect for the overnight ASCAT data. The ongoing strong southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to continue for the foreseeable future, and dry air will continue to envelop the circulation. Marginal sea surface temperatures of 26 C may be able to support occasional convective bursts, but these should be short lived and disorganized, and the low-level wind field should gradually spin down without any organized convection. The latest intensity forecast shows Odalys becoming a remnant low by 36 h, but this may occur sooner if convection does not refire near the center. Odalys is gradually bending more westward at 285/6 kt as it decouples from convection associated with the mid-level center and begins to be influenced primarily by the low-level steering flow. A turn due west and then west-southwest is expected over the next 24 h following the northeasterly trade wind flow. The NHC forecast track is similar to the previous one and is near the track guidance consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 18.3N 122.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 18.5N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 18.2N 125.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 17.5N 126.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1200Z 16.8N 126.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/0000Z 16.2N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky
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