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Tropical Storm Olga Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-10-25 22:35:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 252035 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Olga Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172019 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Although Tropical Depression Seventeen began looking less and less like a tropical cyclone in satellite imagery, scatterometer data and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that so far the tropical cyclone remains just ahead of the approaching cold front, with the aircraft showing the front located about 25 n mi from the center in the southwestern quadrant. In addition, the aircraft and scatterometer data indicate that the cyclone's winds have increased to 35 kt in the northeastern quadrant. Based on this, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Olga. It should be noted that a large area of 35-45 kt winds is occurring west of the cold front over the western Gulf of Mexico, although these winds are more due to the cold air surging across the Gulf than to the cyclone's circulation. Olga has begun its expected acceleration toward the north-northeast with the initial motion now 030/16. A deep-layer baroclinic trough over the southern Plains states should steer the cyclone generally north-northeastward with an additional increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. The center is expected to cross the northern Gulf coast tonight or Saturday morning and eventually reach the eastern Great Lakes by late Sunday. The new forecast track is nudged a little to the east of the previous one based on the initial position and motion through 36 h and an eastward shift in the guidance at 48 h. All indications are that Olga will complete extratropical transition during the next few hours as it merges with the cold front. The intensity forecast shows slight strengthening during the first 12 h based on the premise that the winds west of the cold front remain strong as they wrap into the circulation of Olga. The post-tropical low should weaken after landfall, and it is expected to dissipate just after the 48-h point. Key messages: 1. Since Olga is expected to merge with a cold front and become post-tropical by tonight, hazards related to wind, rainfall and coastal flooding will be covered by products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices, available at weather.gov FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 26.3N 93.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 29.8N 91.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 26/1800Z 35.2N 89.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 27/0600Z 40.1N 86.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 27/1800Z 44.5N 81.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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