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Tropical Storm Pablo Forecast Discussion Number 10
2019-10-28 03:38:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 280238 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 Shortly after the release of the previous advisory, deep convection associated with Pablo finally began to decrease in both coverage and organization. Convection has become confined to the southern portion of the circulation and the eye is no longer apparent in conventional satellite imagery, although a low-level eye feature was still noted in a recent GMI microwave overpass. The initial intensity has been reduced to 60 kt, which is a blend of the latest Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB. Pablo is approaching a frontal boundary that lies just to the north of the cyclone, and is also moving over SSTs of around 17C. This should cause the deep convection to continue to wane overnight, and Pablo is expected to become extratropical when it merges with the aforementioned front on Tuesday. The global models indicate that the post-tropical cyclone will be absorbed by a much larger extratropical low to its west by Tuesday morning. Recent microwave and satellite fixes show that Pablo's forward speed has begun to slow as expected, and its initial motion is now north or 360/12 kt. The dynamical models indicate that Pablo will continue to decelerate overnight as it moves generally northward. A slow northward motion should then continue on Monday as Pablo merges with the frontal zone and becomes post-tropical. The 12- and 24-h forecast wind radii were adjusted outward to account for the area of gale-force winds north of the frontal boundary that Pablo is expected to merge with late Monday or early Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 46.0N 17.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 47.0N 17.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 29/0000Z 48.2N 17.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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