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Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Discussion Number 12
2021-10-13 04:37:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 130237 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Pamela Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 Westerly shear has continued to prevent Pamela from restrengthening this evening. Although there was a significant burst of deep convection since the previous advisory, the center remains on the northwestern edge of the convective cloud mass and more recently the cloud tops associated with that burst has begun to warm. A blend of subjective Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from SAB and TAFB, and the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate stills support an initial intensity of 60 kt. Another Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Pamela overnight, which should provide a better assessment of the cyclone's intensity. Recent center fixes show that Pamela has made its much anticipated north-northeastward turn, and it is now moving 020/10 kt. The tropical storm should accelerate northeastward during the next 12 to 24 hours as it gets caught in deep-layer southwesterly flow between a mid-level ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico, and an approaching mid-latitude trough to the northwest. This motion should bring the center of Pamela to the coast of west-central mainland Mexico around 1200 UTC Wednesday morning. After that time, Pamela or its remnants should continue moving quickly northeastward across central and northern Mexico through Wednesday night. Although a 36-h post-tropical cyclone point is shown over southern Texas, the low-level center is likely to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of Mexico late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Pamela will be moving over very warm SSTs of around 31C overnight, and that combined with a slightly more conducive upper-level wind pattern should allow Pamela to restrengthen into a hurricane before it reaches the coast of Mexico Wednesday morning. After landfall, rapid weakening will occur as Pamela moves over the rugged terrain of west-central Mexico. The latest NHC intensity forecast is again near the higher side of the guidance envelope, but it shows a slightly lower peak intensity before landfall than the previous official forecast. Although Pamela is likely to dissipate over the rugged terrain of Mexico, deep moisture associated with the system's remnants are likely to spread over north-central and northeastern Mexico on Wednesday, and then move into portions of the south-central United States late Wednesday or Thursday. Key Messages: 1. Pamela is forecast to restrengthen into a hurricane before it reaches the west-central coast of Mexico on Wednesday morning, and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected to move into the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango along with southern portions of Baja California Sur tonight and Wednesday. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Heavy rains associated with the remnants of Pamela are expected across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma late Wednesday and Thursday. This may result in considerable flash and urban flooding impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 21.9N 108.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 23.8N 106.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 14/0000Z 26.6N 103.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 14/1200Z 29.7N 99.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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